Lib Dem MP Tom Brake is set to retain his Carshalton and Wallington seat in next year’s general election, according to opinion poll figures compiled by prominent Conservative supporter Lord Ashcroft.

The survey published last month also suggests UKIP could make a 14 per cent gain in votes compared to their 2010 result, leapfrogging Labour as the ward’s third-choice.

Mr Brake has served as the constituency's MP since 1997, and is forecasted to achieve 43 per cent of the vote.

The 5 per cent drop from what he achieved in 2010 is still a huge majority over prospective Conservative MP Matthew Maxwell Scott, who is predicted to get 23 per cent.

UKIP candidate Bill Main-Ian was third in the poll with 17 per cent, who said: "We have had a big response from people out on the ground.

"I have the feeling we have about 25 per cent (support) or thereabouts."

Labour trail the anti-immigration party by 5 per cent in the survey, with their candidate Siobhan Tate forecasted to come fourth.

Ms Tate said: "The ward has an MP who got in to keep out the Conservatives, and is now serving in a Tory-led government.

"He has voted for the Health and Social Care Act, and has even voted for a gagging law to stop charities campaigning in the run-up to the election.

"He has done the opposite of everything he stood for."

Green Party candidate Ross Hemingway is predicted to get 3 per cent of the vote, up from the 0.8 per cent support achieved by 2010 candidate George Dow.

Mr Hemingway said: "Nationally UKIP are given far more media coverage. We’re confident, given as much airtime and pages in the press as UKIP, the Green Party would be polling much higher."

Mr Maxwell-Scott responded to the news by arguing Mr Brake's longevity within the constituency was a challenge for the Tories to overcome

He said: "When you are up against someone who has spent two decades promoting themselves locally it is going to have an impact.

"My job between now and the election is to show the ward I can offer them a much stronger voice in parliament than the one they have now."

Lib Dem backing in Carshalton and Wallington is at odds with floundering support for the party up and down the country.

Mr Brake said: "I take comfort from the findings of this poll. But a week is a long time in politics and the election is five to six months away.

"I am certainly not counting my chickens, and there is everything to play for."

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MP Tom Brake